'Mission: Impossible 6' Nabs Tom Cruise's Biggest Opening Day -- Forbes

Mission: Impossible – Fallout opened with a solid $23 million on Friday, including $6m in Thursday preview gross (another Cruise record). 

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

That’s Cruise’s second-biggest single day gross, sans inflation, behind the $23.1m opening Friday of War of the Worlds back in 2005, and thus his biggest opening day figure.

While we can debate to what extent Cruise is still a “butts in the seats” movie star, he is absolutely worth a bazillion bucks when it comes to these Ethan Hunt vehicles.

While the franchise may have begun as a “Hey, watch Tom Cruise cosplay an action hero in a movie loosely based on that spy show with the cool masks and the cooler theme song,” it morphed into a kind of old-fashioned star-driven franchise in an era of IP cash-ins. Like (relatively speaking) The Equalizer, it’s less about the IP and more about a major movie star playing to their most popular onscreen persona.

The appeal of the franchise, inflation and challenges faced in getting folks to the theaters in this Netflix-and-chill era notwithstanding, has only grown in the last half-decade. It has morphed into a kind of a throwback with practical effects, real locations and gonzo “believe your eyes” stunt work. Brad Bird’s Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol was a soft reboot (with a more explicit continuity and an emphasis on crazy stunts over melodrama) that became Cruise’s biggest global grosser ever ($694 million, sans inflation or overseas expansion).

Christopher McQuarrie’s Rogue Nation earned almost as much ($683m) In July of 2015 while winning equally rave reviews. Fallout isn’t just a sixth Mission: Impossible movie, it’s a direct sequel to the last three films (starting with J.J. Abrams’ Mission: Impossible III). With McQuarrie becoming the first director to make two of these flicks (Brian DePalma started it in 1996, and John Woo directed Mission: Impossible II in 2000), Fallout also brings back fan favorite Rebecca Ferguson and offers Henry Cavill as a foil.

Couple that with what is easily the best trailer for any movie this year, and there was a hope that this film would turbo-charge the franchise as a kind of Skyfall/Fast and Furious breakout smash beyond the franchise’s current boundaries.vI’ve theorized all year that Fallout could be the movie that takes the Mission: Impossible series to new heights, or at least something comparable to Fast & Furious 6 ($788 million in 2013) or possibly Spectre ($881m in 2015). Even if it mere settles for merely opening better than (and grossing slightly more than) its predecessor, that qualifies as “mission: difficult” in this day-and-age.

The film earned 26% of its opening day on Thursday compared to 19.7% for Rogue Nation ($4 million Thursday/$20.3m Friday). Now that could just be an increase in Thursday preview-ing among general moviegoers or more frenzied anticipation among fans, or it could mean a more frontloaded opening weekend. 

If the film is merely as leggy this weekend as Rogue Nation, we’re looking at a boffo $62.7m debut weekend. That would be Cruise’s second-biggest launch ever behind the $64m Fri-Sun debut of War of the Worlds.

If it’s merely as leggy as Spectre (2.56x) or Jason Bourne (2.61x), we’re looking at an over/under $59 million launch. The worst case scenario is that it proves to be a fans-only affair even with rave reviews and strong word-of-mouth (including an A from Cinemascore). A 2.3x multiplier still gets it to a decent-enough $53m for the weekend. 

Tom Cruise’s biggest Fri-Sun frames (sans inflation) are War of the Worlds ($64.8m from a $103m Wed-Sun debut in 2005) and Mission: Impossible II ($57.8m from a $92m Wed-Sun debut in 2000). Anything over $65m, however unlikely, means a new personal best for Cruise and a debut above the inflation-adjusted debut of Rogue Nation.

Ghost Protocol opened over the Christmas holiday, with an IMAX-only sneak peek first so that one is a little complicated and spaced out (it snagged $13 million in its IMAX-only debut weekend and then legged it to $209m domestic in 2011/2012). We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend. 

For the record, even if it’s only as big as Jason Bourne or Star Trek Beyond in North America, it’s almost certain to be a much bigger deal overseas than those two. Was I expecting more, especially after the rave reviews and the strong Thursday preview number? Sure, but this is still a solid opening day for a very good movie.

Forbes