Bobi Wine’s First Political Year In Retrospect: Why Some Of His ‘Supporters’ Are Beginning To Have Misgivings?

Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine

It’s exactly a year since the Bobi Wine mania caused hysteria on the political landscape of this country… his arrival on the political scene had everyone weighing in, with a big section of political elite even touting him as the new face of Uganda’s politics… well, all of us are always entitled to our opinions.

However, I remember arguing that the singer-turned-legislator had a long way to go – to prove that he really could walk on water. I insisted he was not Jesus…   

This is my write-up six months ago, July 12, 2017…

Yesterday [July 11, 2017] newly elected Member of Parliament, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine was inaugurated following a hotly contested by-election in Kyadondo East last month. Now, with everything granted him as a full legislator, he lives to redeem himself by either walking the talk or like many of his predecessors evade his responsibility to solely focus on his future electability by conveniently talking the walk instead. This is what I mean;

Kyagulanyi ran a demagogic campaign – and it worked for him. The thing is; he resuscitated people’s hope that had hitherto been buried with Dr. Besigye’s chronic failure to seize power from those he describes as incompetent. Now Kyagulanyi came and placed himself as a conduit, so-to-speak – and he has happily made the most of this populism. He got elected. Now the ball is in his court.

His feet must now come to the ground – because, despite the sloganeering and glitz that runs in political campaigns, those young girls and lads that gave him votes against all odds are real people with real problems – they cannot be taken for a ride – someone must fix their problems. I don’t know how Kyagulanyi will achieve this but he must. At this point he cannot be a failure whatsoever. Besigye has been enough for that – Kyagulanyi’s own election against FDC’s Kantinti justifies that claim well enough.

When there was not much else to lean on, the drowning citizens of Kyadondo clutched on Bobi Wine – and he cannot be a straw – for his people’s sake and himself.

That said, we know that in Parliament; people make laws, do oversight and lobby [for their constituencies]. So, basically the job is to talk and talk – incidentally it’s not what the people of Kyadondo lacked. They want health care, they want education. They want jobs; straight down they want public goods and services.

The uniqueness of Kyagulanyi’s populist mandate is that they [voters] need something working in their communities and that should be because of him – his wits, his discretion, his lobbying, his compromise – not his opposition.

Now this is a paradox – for him especially. To get the public goods is to be pragmatic. But to be pragmatic is to be a political liability – because that means liaising with the ruling party when almost two-thirds of his voters were of the political Opposition. So what does Kyagulanyi do?

For sheer gratification [from his own people] he’ll be compelled to raise his head high out of the [parliamentary] crowd.

He knows the weight on his shoulders and as such he will go for the low hanging fruit – the press cameras – even if just to sound relevant. I envisage a man finding himself having to be less pragmatic than expedient – to maintain his political base. And he will call his positions either moral or constitutional.

So between voters’ perception of him and a [social services] deal for them, the services become the opportunity cost. Right there, it will dawn on him that it is easier said than done.

Unsprisingly so -- he’s just a man; his personal ambitions inadvertently prevail over his humanitarian and patriotic heart.

To choose to compromise with the ruling NRM in pursuit of public goods for his people, he will have to risk being misunderstood by the radicals that voted him into office. Of course he will not do that because he is a hostage of political reality.

It is simply what happens when impoverished countries [like Uganda] import other people’s political system and try to fit it in like a glove.

To win in this scenario one has to quickly learn to be crafty to juggle both extreme ends – such as the Lord Mayor, Erias Lukwago [as insinuated on NBS TV’s Frontline by DP President, Nobert Mao] – sacrificing reason – stage-managing your own struggle against the regime – deluding the voters – all for personal sustenance.

The Crux Of The Matter…

In as much as the electorate are ignorant of many [democracy] tenets, they are what we have. They are fully franchised and no one risks “angering” them; they run the politicians’ agenda and as it is now, they are a big chunk of jobless and disgruntled youth. It is like-these that voted for Kyagulanyi.

He says he is not a politician but he will be one sly son of a duck much sooner than he envisages.

The day Politicians discover their voters’ aspirations are pipe dreams, they don’t get upfront with them – it’s politically naïve – rather they learn to plant scapegoats to shift the reprimand from themselves to someone else.

So for Robert Kyagulanyi to choose to play to the gallery will be a safer bet because it can guarantee re-election. It steps on NRM toes, widens the gap of collaborative politics but it keeps his political base, even gives him mileage.

The dilemma with this is that the problems of the constituency will remain. And that’s the story of why being a relevant and effective Opposition legislator has always been a myth in Uganda.

What Kyagulanyi’s predecessors have done is begin to posture and pull wool over their voters eyes; perhaps even reach in own pocket to pool resources to dig a borehole or two, procure a couple of coffee seedlings… talk… offer a few scholarships… talk some more… attend a burial… rant insults to the executive… and you should be on your way to Parliament for the second term.

I predict this is what Bobi Wine’s time in office will be like… until another Bobi Wine rises.